When will coronavirus infect everyone in Kenya?

By MUNGAI KIHANYA

The Sunday Nation

Nairobi,

29 March 2020

Suppose we don’t change anything and we continue with our normal affairs as if there was no coronavirus in the air. What would happen? In the 11 days since the announcement of the first confirmed case of covid-19 in Kenya, the numbers have grown steadily to 25.

So far, majority of people have not changed their habits despite constant appeals by the health authorities. Nevertheless, the daily increment rate appears to have stabilised to about 35 per cent – still a very high rate!

The number of confirmed cases are now doubling every two days and nine hours. Consequently, by the end of March on Tuesday 31st, we should expect have about 151 people with the disease.

This will be 18 days since the first case was confirmed and, so, the seven patients confirmed in initial four days will have been discharged from the isolation ward at Mbagathi hospital. Thus, we shall have 144 people in hospital.

If the trend continues and we don’t change our habits, all the 48 million people of Kenya will have contracted the virus in about 59 days from the first confirmation. In other words, 43 days from today!

Now, it takes about 14 days from the first signs of symptoms for the virus to clear out of the human body. So, by the end of 59 days, all those who caught it from day one up to day 59 – 14 = 45 will either have cured or died from the disease.

By day 45, the number of “resolved cases” – that is, either died or cured – will be about 730. Thus, at the peak of infections, nearly all of us will have the virus in our bodies!

The World Health Organisation, WHO, estimates that about 20 per cent of infected people become critically ill and need hospitalisation. Hence, by day 59, we shall require about 9.6 million hospital beds!

Of course, there is no way we can manage such a large number.

I estimate that we can reserve about 2,500 hospital beds for coronavirus patients – that is, 50 in each of the 47 counties and 150 in Nairobi.

To get through this pandemic, we must ensure that at no time does the number of critical cases exceed 2,500 nationally. But, these represent only 20 per cent of total infections. Thus we must make sure that the total infections do not go above 12,500.

If we don’t change; we will cross that line on day 31 (two weeks from today). But, if the growth rate is halved to 17.5 per cent, we shall cross our bed limit in 58 days (six weeks from now).

If we desire to extend the time limit to, say, one year, we must bring down the daily growth rate to about 2.5 per cent. To achieve that, everyone must adhere strictly to the guidelines provided by health authorities. The problem we are facing now is not that the guidelines are ineffective, but that people are not taking them seriously.