Formula predicts World Cup matches correctly

 By MUNGAI KIHANYA

The Sunday Nation

Nairobi,

06 July 2014

Last week I made some World Cup predictions and in the process also made some friends and enemies in equal measure! Both called me a mchawi and it was difficult to figure out where this was in a positive or negative sense of the word!

Out of the six matches that I predicted here, five turned out as expected. Indeed, after the Group Stage games were over, I applied my simple goal-ratio formula to the remaining two second round matches and both turned out as I had expected – Argentina defeated Switzerland and Belgium won against the USA.

Now seven out of eight is 87.5% - it is a very good score, if I may say so myself! It shows that the goal ratio is a reliable way of assessing team performance and we can use it to predict future matches. But before going into predictions, let me first compare my method with that used by FIFA.

In the first round, teams are ranked according to points attained – three points for a win, one for a draw and none for a loss. The two leading teams proceed to the second round where each group winner is matched up with a runner-up from another group.

Therefore, if the group winners are indeed the better teams, we should expect them to win the second round matches. Looking at the results, this was exactly the case. So, perhaps I should have used group ranking to make my predictions…

The challenge of predicting the outcome of the quarter finals is that the teams that teams that have qualified all won their second round matches. But I think the goal ratio can help. However, we shouldn’t use just the goals scored in the previous round – that’s not enough data to give a good assessment of a team’s ability.

It is better to accumulate the goals scored in the whole tournament so far and use these to work out new ratios. But some of the matches were decided on penalties; should these be included in the ratio?

Well, like I said before, I don’t know much about football; I don’t know whether taking a penalty is easier or more difficult than scoring a goal during normal play! Nonetheless, these scores were used to determine the winner, so as an “outsider’ I will include them.

After doing the math, it turns out that France, with a cumulative goal ratio of 5, will defeat Germany (ratio = 3) and Colombia (5.5) will win against Brazil (2.2). Again, just like last Sunday, these matches will have been played by the time you read this and if the outcome is what I have predicted, you can decide whether you want to place bets on the following: Belgium (3) will beat Argentina (2.33) and the Netherlands (3) will triumph over Costa Rica (2).

If this turns out correct, then next week, I will have enough ammunition to tell you who will win the World Cup 2014. Luckily, the finals are scheduled for Sunday 13^th July.