How to decide on the number & size of constituencies

By MUNGAI KIHANYA

The Sunday Nation

Nairobi,

09 September 2007

It was probably a blessing that the Constitutional Amendment Bill proposing to increase the number of constituencies was defeated in Parliament. The august House is not qualified to decide on that matter. This is a job for professionals at the Electoral Commission of Kenya.

However, even the professionals must be guided on how to carry out their duties. The role of parliament is to provide the guidelines.

The desire to increase the number of constituencies comes from two anomalies. First, there are some Members of Parliament representing too many people, especially in urban areas. Secondly, there are others representing very large territories in the sparsely populated arid regions of the country. Thus the constitutional guidelines should be based on these two concerns.

Clearly, population is the more important factor – MPs represent the people, not the land! Thus what is needed is a law that puts an upper limit on the number of people in any constituency.

With that figure, it becomes easy to determine the total number of constituencies in the country – simply divide the national population by this maximum limit.

Once we have the number of constituencies, the next step is to put a limit on the surface area. It is tempting to divide the country’s total area by the number of constituencies but that would yield the average size, not the MAXIMUM.

A reasonable maximum size should ensure that the average value is half-way between zero and the limit. This is achieved by doubling the mean value. Doing that also gives the Electoral Commission enough room for manoeuvre.

Let me illustrate the proposal with the current situation in Kenya. The national population is about 30 million people. Suppose we put the limit on population per constituency at 100,000. That would yields a total of 300 constituencies.

Now, the total surface area of Kenya is about 580,000 square kilometres, therefore the average size of a constituency should be about 1,900sq.km. That is an area measuring approximately 44km by 44km – if it were a square!

The maximum area then works out to about 3,900sq.km (we can round it up to 4,000sq.km for simplicity), or 63km by 63km. Of course, I am not suggesting that constituencies be square shapes! That would be impractical. The square measurements are given only to provide a mental picture of the size (although, if you think about it, there is probably nothing wrong with a square).

Consequently, the constitution should be amended to read something like: “Constituency numbers and boundaries shall be reviewed by the Electoral Commission once every ten years to ensure that (a) none has more than 100,000 inhabitants and (b) none has a surface area greater than double the national average – determined from the national population”.

That removes the politicians from the exercise and leaves it in the hands of professional demographers and surveyors – as it should be. The MPs can debate the population limit and once they agree on a figure, it is unlikely to require revision in the next few centuries!